Summary for the time poor
The Newcastle market continues to be tough for many buyers. Listings are low and buyer demand in the middle market bands is resolute. It is no surprise therefore that the latest Corelogic data shows that the Newcastle-Maitland regional market continues to rebound.
Corelogic data shows a median price now of $820,007. This data also highlights that property values have risen 2.7% in the past quarter and rents 3.1% in the same period. If this pace continues this could lead to a 10.8% increase in values over the coming 12 months.
Lake Macquarie continues to be a hot destination for Sydney-siders selling up and moving, and the regional towns of Cessnock and Maitland also continue to be attractive for inter-region migration.
Cardiff and West Wallsend are some of the more in-demand suburbs right now - both suburbs have a median of around $750k, and are home to lots of well establsihed housing on larger blocks of land. Buyers are likely seeing greater value for money in these types of suburbs.
Units in Kurri Kurri and Cessnock are the most affordable, with the boutique beachside and lakeside suburbs of Merewether and Valentine respectively recording the highest sales in the last month.
Newcastle Property Values and Rents continue to rise
The latest MEDIAN property value for the Newcastle - Maitland regions (according to Corelogic) is now $820,007.
- Prices have increased 2.7% in the past quarter and 6.3% over the past 12 months
- Rents too are on the rise, up 3.1% in the last quarter.
Nigel Watts, co-founder of Niva Property Buyers states...
"With a median home valued at $820,007, and assuming 2.7% growth per quarter, this means that the expected increase in value per quarter is $22,140 (or $7,380 per month). For buyers looking to get into the market this really shows that every month you wait can cost you money in terms of lost capital growth, but it also means missed opportunities."
"The recent price and rent increases are likely due to the continued low stock levels, and no let up in buyer demand in the greater Newcastle region. This is especially so in the $600k-$1m price bracket at the moment."
Sales (and listings) are still low in the Newcastle region
As can be seen from the Corelogic data below, the total sales to the end of February 2024 is 10% below the 5 year average. This is on top of low listings and sales over the 12 month period prior as well.
The graph below (on the right) also shows that 33.5% of the sales are in the $600k-$800k price range with a whopping 55.3% in the $600k - $1m band. This is very much reflected on the ground with intense competition in this price range.
Vacancy Rates at very low levels = High Demand
Courtesy of our partner Suburbtrends, the following graphic shows the low Vacancy Rates across Newcastle and Lake Macquarie. This demonstrates the high demand in the local areas and is useful for both investors and renters to help them in their property search.
Newcastle region's most in-demand suburbs
Courtesy of Suburbtrends, the top 5 in-demand suburb markets right now (based on days on market) are shown in the table below. It is also interesting and not a surprise to note that the median price for these suburbs is generally in the high-demand price bracket as shown in the Corelogic bar chart (% of sales by bracket) above.
NOTE - The above analysis for in-demand suburbs looks only at suburbs which have greater than 10 active listings. If you look at suburbs with less than 10 listings the data can become less reliable and produce statistically unsound results which may offer false perceptions for readers. Suburbs do have smaller days-on-market than those shown above (such as Cessnock Units, as well as houses in Mayfield, Mayfild East and Mayfield West), however, due to low listings these metrics cannot be relied upon alone. All that said, Niva Property Buyers can offer insights here on these suburbs which have low listings. Cessnock Units for example have a median of $425,000 so this is a very attractive price point and the Cessnock area is undergoing reasonable growth and influx from inter-region migration as well. The 3 suburbs of Mayfield are also proving popular at the moment due to the continuing development around Mayfield, its proximity to Newcastle CBD, and due to the current value for money for homes in these suburbs as compared to other Newcastle locales.
Newcastle's most affordable market segments
The market segments in the greater Newcastle area that are the most affordable are UNITS in Kurri Kurri, Cessnock, Rutherford, Waratah, Jesmond and East Maitland. Kurri Kurri units have a median of $425,000, whilst units in East Maitland have a median of $500,000.
The most affordable HOUSE market is in Woodbery whose median price is $520,000, followed by Weston, and then Telarah with a median of $570,000.
Newcastle's most expensive market segments
The market segments in the greater Newcastle are that are the least affordable are all HOUSES, in the following suburbs. Merewether leads the way with a median of $2.15Million.
TOP 5 Sales in MAY 2024
The top sales in the Newcastle region over the past month are below. No surprises that they are all water front or have great views to the Pacific Ocean or Lake Macquarie:
- 4 Pell Street, MEREWETHER view
- 83 Dilkera Avenue, VALENTINE view
- 111 Ross Street, BELMONT view
- 235 Mitchell Street, STOCKTON view
- 82 Ross Street, BELMONT view
Population breakdown of the greater Newcastle region
The pie chart below provides a breakdown of the population centres in the greater Newcastle region (based on latest Census 2021 data from the ABS). Across the greater region the total estimated population in 2021 was 698,925.
Disclaimer: The data shown above has been obtained form 3rd party sources at the time of producing this blog post. Whilst Niva Property Buyers undertakes checks to validate some of the data where possible, we cannot and do not guarantee the accuracy or validity of this data. People should not make investment of buying decisions based on the above data, in whole or in part, nor on data alone, and should always seek independent advice from qualified tax advisers, financial planners and licensed real estate agents local to the area in which they wish to make a purchase. The above analysis is generally focussed on the Local Government Areas of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Maitland and Cessnock.
